李开复哥大毕业演讲：工程师的AI银河系漫游指南

I know that these are far from the best years of your lives。 I know that your best days are yet to come。 To be specific， my hope for you is that the next 10 years will be the best years in your lives。

Why 10 years? 10 years seem so far away。 But really it is not。 Checking in with May 2007 seems like a good way to visualize what 10 years can do in our world。

It is interesting to remember that in 2007， Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone。 Back then， I was still using my Blackberry， and my wife was still using her Nokia。

And in 2007， a young senator Barack Obama， decided to run for President。 And back in 2007， Donald Trump was still saying， “You are fired” rather than “Make America Great Again。”

So 10 years can do a lot， but the next 10 will do much much more than the last 10。 Why? Because， the next decade will be the Age of Artificial Intelligence， or AI。

As students， you’ve probably seen AI course enrollment go from 80 to 800。 And that certainly is one leading indicator。

I was introduced to AI at Columbia in 1980。 As someone who has worked for 37 years on research， development， and investment in AI， I can speak with some authority that – AI will be a revolution on the scale of the Industrial Revolution， probably larger， and definitely faster。

But this is not a hand-wavy futurist AI talk。 This is an engineer-to-engineer talk。 We know that AI works。 We know that AI gets better with more data and more use。 We know how to extrapolate it to measure its impact in ten years。

Let’s first see what AI can do today。

Today， an AI image processing company that I invested in can make people’s selfies more beautiful， so much so that every Chinese movie star I know doesn’t allow her photo to be published without it。 Its user base? 1.3 billion。

Today， an AI loan company that I invested in China can approve a loan in seconds， with a default rate much lower than a human loan officer who would takes days。 This company is less than two years old， but will underwrite almost 30 million loans this year， more than almost any bank。

Today， an AI facial recognition company that I invested in can recognize any face from 3 million faces， with super-human accuracy。 If installed in all the airports around the world， it would essentially prevent known terrorists or wanted criminals from entering any airplane。

These three AI companies are worth a total of about $10 billion。 But that’s loose change compared to what can be built in the next 10 years。

In the next 10 years， all financial companies will be turned upside-down， with AI replacing traders， bankers， accountants， research analysts， and insurance companies。 Last year， my AI investment algorithm returned 8 times more than my private banker。 That reminds me – when I go home I am going to fire my private banker。

In the next 10 years， AI will replace most factory workers， assistants， advisors， and middlemen。 But AI is not limited to simple jobs。 AI will also replace many reporters， doctors， and teachers。 Your AI assistant will know better than you what you would like to eat tonight， where you should go on vacation， and whom you should date。

But it doesn’t stop there。 In 10 years， mechanical AI will become reliable。 AI will be safer at driving cars than people， sweeping changes， as it were， brought by the lowly Roomba…。 will grow up and cook， wash， clean and handle all the household drudgery for us。

In 10 years， because AI will make so much money for humanity， we will enter the Age of Plenty， making strides to eradicate poverty and hunger， and giving all of us more spare time and freedom to do what we love。

In 10 years， because AI will replace half of human jobs， we will enter the Age of Confusion， and many people will become depressed as they lose the jobs and the corresponding self-actualization。 And many of you will become parents concerned with how to improve education in order to prevent your children from being replaced by AI。

These predictions are not based on some hand-wavy comparison of the number of neurons possessed by humans and AI simulators。 Rather， they are based on an engineer’s extrapolation based on known algorithms， and the real marketplace and workforce。

In my company， we have raised over $1 billion to invest in these developments。 Softbank has launched a $100 billion Vision Fund。 The tech giants of the past 50 years – IBM， Microsoft， Google， Facebook， have all declared themselves to be AI companies。 So even if you doubt me， you probably should not doubt all of them。

So， for leading edge， super smart engineers like yourselves， 2027 should be the best of times in your lives。 Unless you miss the AI revolution， in which case it may turn into the worst times in your lives。

Now let me give you three pieces of advice – how not to miss the Age of AI， so that you can have the time of your life。

My first is： Embrace AI， and align your career by betting on its inevitability。

Like all big change， AI requires you to have an open mind。 It’s OK to be fearful of change。

As Mark Twain explained， “Courage is resistance to fear， mastery of fear。 Not absence of fear。”

Your hard work has prepared you to confront， or simply accept， or warmly embrace - change that will push you in new directions。

Given what lies ahead， you must warmly embrace AI。 While the first AI tools in your industry may appear fragile， be assured they will get better with data。

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